YES ................ and without any complex tools or paraphernalia!

I make no claims to be able to fully predict the weather but I do claim that anyone can be empowered to learn to see for themselves regular underlying patterns behind the weather and predict them well in advance.

The following article aims to be a report on weather correlations to movements of the Sun and Moon. It does not offer any explanations or hypothesis for these phenomena.

We are all familiar with how the sun effects the seasons and we an make fair predictions as regards to mean temperatures over the course of the year. Making our observations more conscious we can note the altitude of the sun and compare it to temperatures. When the sun is high at midday it is summer and warmer temperatures prevail. When it is low, winter is upon us. This is an easy step and I am using the sun as an "instrument" of nature to clarify my thinking. So instead of using an instrument like a thermometer, or barometer, or clock, I am using the altitude of the sun as a gauge.

So we watch the sun daily climb (ascend) in altitude from winter to summer(ascending sun) and then go down again, after the summer solstice, to winter (descending sun). As summer comes and the sun gets higher in the sky
there is a correlation to the sun moving northwards into and above the northern hemisphere. When the sun is lowest in the sky it is over the southern hemisphere's Tropic of Capricorn. When at its highest the sun is over the Tropic of Cancer. (NB from a resident in the northern hemisphere's perspective).

To summarise the first part:-
Sun high - summer - warm weather
Sun low - winter - cold weather

Take your next "nature instrument" ............ the Moon. Watch how it changes altitude. Note how it ascends (climbs higher) and descends (gets lower) in 1 month whereas the sun takes 12 months to complete this cycle. The Moon goes through the same cycle as the sun but twelve times faster.

Now for this rhythms connection to the weather:-
A few days after the Moon starts ascending (climbing higher for a fortnight) relatively warmer weather generally prevails. With our thinking we can also realise that the northward movement of the Moon (whenever it is ascending) is associated with warmer air masses to the south of you moving northward.
In the next fortnight when the Moon is descending cooler temperatures can prevail. The Moon is then moving southwards and weather to the north of you (not always cooler) comes in. The days on or after the change from ascension to descension, or vice versa, are generally turbulent.

In summary:-
Moon climbing - warmer southerly systems come up
Moon descending - cooler northern weather comes down
Moon changing direction brings turbulence

There is this fortnightly component to the weather patterns. It is very simple and will be borne out by your observations and record keeping. I stress component because other weather patterns can dominate and override this one. Nonetheless this is a fundamental rhythm with the weather.

A calendar illustrating and informing you of times of various sky rhythms is a great help too. It can be a tool to help you become more conscious of what you are observing in the heavens. I write this article as a compiler of such a calendar.

Next step, while we are on ascending and descending rhythms of the Moon.
Observe that the day after peak descension of the Moon (when it is at its lowest altitude for the month whilst crossing the sky) the day is windy
or at least breezy. The same is true for just after peak ascension. To make your observations more interesting and fun note that, at peak descension the Moon rises in the south east (not due east) and sets in the south west ........ just like the sun in winter! At peak ascension it rises in the north east and sets in the north west. It is quite fascinating just how much the Moon's rising and setting position changes from day to day!

When the Moon (or sun) is rising in the east and setting in the west, then that is the day it is crossing the equator. Watch how often we have electrical activity (lightning) and winds around these times. For those interested, when the Moon crosses going southwards it is in the constellation of Virgo and when crossing into the northern hemisphere it is in Pisces.

Using the same instrument (the Moon) but a different lunar rhythm, we can also observe how the Moon changes size in a separate month long rhythm (there are 4 lunar rhythms of approximately 1 month duration) . You can make a measuring stick (as some cultures do). Hold a stick at arms length against the backdrop of the Moon and notch the Moons visual diameter on the stick. Make fresh notches at each observation. The Moon's apparent diameter changes as it gets nearer or farther from the Earth in its elliptical orbit. The Moon's closest approach to the Earth is called perigee and it farthest distance away apogee.

Within this cycle, lunar perigee is when there is the greatest chance for rain to fall. This also when you getter higher tides. In some months the perigee distances are closer than others and it helps to know them when considering the planting of crops for example.

Next note how often weather changes and rain occurs after the Full Moon.
Combining this phenomenum with the perigee effect i.e. when the 2 rhythms are running together, you can have much wetter (and wilder) conditions. You can have too much of a good thing though. The 4 lunar rhythms which are approximately 1 month in duration (but none the same) come into phase with each other, and move out again, but in different combinations. When 2 rhythms come into phase with each other expect some dynamic weather, when 3 do, within 2-3 days of each other, expect some wild weather worldwide.

Now we have changing lunar rhythms occurring all the time, one combination may bring rain here but not there. How can we be more specific as to location?

If, for example, a full Moon is at peak ascension in January that combination will recur again in 19 years time. So if you can gather weather records for your district over as long a span as you can get you can greatly increases your chances of weather forecasting successes. Monthly averages do not help so much; you need more specific daily figures for your location. What happened 19 years ago in the same season when there was a full Moon at peak ascension; 38 years ago (2 cycles); 57 years ago? What happened in previous cycles of the new Moon at apogee?

These weather records are also necessary to find correlations to the next cycle. Earlier in the article I mentioned the sun ranging northwards and then southwards between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Well the Moon does roughly the same except that some years she ranges within the tropics and some years beyond. Over a period of 18.6 years (different to the 19 year rhythm) the Moon will move from an expanded range of 5 degrees beyond the two Tropics and then retreat to confine herself 5 degrees within the Tropics; and then expand back again. When the lunar declinations (movements north and south of the equator) have a more limited range weather fluctuations tend to be more extreme. One can swing from floods to droughts in very short time periods. Drought cycles are more associated with declination maximums (ranging beyond both tropics e.g. from 28 degrees north to 28 degrees south).

What else can this "Moon-nature-instrument" help us with in weather forecasting?

Used on a daily basis we can note when the Moon rises and when it. Observe when there is rain about, how often rain commences when the Moon rises or sets. Note also how there is a greater tendency for cloud formation when the Moon is well below the horizon and a cloud clearing when it is high above us. This needs to be taken in context of the season and the time of the day.

We can come to appreciate just how much correlation there is to the fluid dynamics of the Earth and the Moons movements and changing luminosity.
The Moon is not the be-all and end-all to weather. However understanding some of the phenomena around it is a great step towards developing our forecasting skills. Moreover it is fun, empowering and helps towards developing a subtle side to ourselves.

Of course knowledge of the weather can be a great boon to farmers for the planting of crops but there is more to the likes of perigees, full Moons and peak descensions. It would seem from H.Spiess' research that not only are these times the highest chance of receiving rainfall; but seeds planted at these times, are more likely to grow into higher yielding plants (refer to www.acenet.com.au/~astrocal/research).

Are not the weather, oceans and plants dancing to the same tune!?

A study of the underlying rhythms behind weather patterns can be very rewarding. However we still need to remind ourselves that the weather still has a few tricks up her sleeve and will never become totally predictable!

Brian Keats is the author of the annual Northern Star and Antipodean Astro Calendars. They are guides for Astronomy, Weather Forecasting & Biodynamic Planting for the northern and southern hemispheres respectively.
He has taught, lectured and conducted lectures, seminars and workshops across Australia, USA, Canada and Japan. Brian was one of the founding members of the Biodynamic Farming and Gardening Association of Australia.

Diagrams are excerpts from the The Northern Star Calendar and the Antipodean Astro calendar whichare available from:-
Brian Keats 43 Azalea St., Mullumbimby NSW 2482, Australia.